GREEN HOUSE, AND SEA-LEVEL RISE
~ Twenty four years ago,
1991, I wrote a book : “US ENERGY POLICY, ‘SOS: Scared Ostrich Syndrome’
(A Dozen Years Closer to Doomsday)”
… you can read it FREE, it
has been displayed online since 2008 at
~ On page 8, I wrote then, “Already in
my teenage years I became alarmed when I realized what would happen if
all carbon trapped in the huge fossil reserves would –eventually- be
released back into the atmosphere.
Definitely it would be a primeval milieu, most likely not breathable for
human beings. Actually, we would not have to wait until all fossil
energy is burned. At current levels of production and consumption, and
with explosive population growth across most of our planet, it will not
take too many decades for us to be in a BIG ENVIRONMENTAL TROUBLE.”
** In 2016 we reached 410 ppm
(parts per million) of CO2, the highest ever in recorded human history,
and it continues rising at a rate of 3.5 ppm/year ,
furthermore, the slope is not flat, but curving up (accelerating rate).
** This means that –if you do the math- in
200 years we would surpass 1000 ppm, level that is
toxic by OSHA (when you are permanent submerged breathing that
foul air). Seniors, children, and people with asthma will have trouble
breathing at even lower level.
~ Solar energy, and good batteries is the
answer, so it has been quite interesting to read the technological
progress made in batteries (thanks to Elon Musk and his
companies). Great man!
Be aware that CO2 is the
culprit! It is the cause of those grave threats stalking our
planet. CO2 is a "green-house gas", which means that allows "visible"
solar radiation to pass through but reflects back to Earth the heat
produced by those photons striking the land ("infrared" radiation),
causing the “GREENHOUSE
EFFECT” that has been cooking our sister planet, Venus.
~ Greenhouse causes average temperatures to
rise, thus causing the melting of glaciers as well as “sea-level
rise”. Oceans are currently rising at 3 mm / year
and picking up (you can read more about this on one of my “science
beacon” websites (like wwww.DoomedGlobe.com, which has been online for about
a decade). Although this flooding is a huge problem for lowlands
all over the globe, it would take 1000 years to get to 5m flooding
(about 15 feet). Yet, for every feet of rise in sea-level the
ocean moves 19 feet inland (on average). Much faster if land is
flat and at sea level.
~ Analyzing the CO2 in "ice-cores" drilled from
Antarctica we know that in a million years its level had never been so high
(mammals have been on Earth for about 5 to 10 million years). Primitive
humans inhabited the planet about 3 million years ago.
~ By other means of investigation, we know that
during the Carboniferous, Silurian, Devonian and so forth, the CO2 was
much higher (5000 ppm level). That level would be extremely toxic for us, but plants
(Carboniferous) or fish and mollusks (in the Silurian and Devonian) who
lived in water did not have a problem with the high level of CO2 either.
~ I used to teach 'Paleontology' to my
students in the 'Earth Science' class, even in the 'Integrated Science'
class, and also gave some notions of it to my 'Physics' students (when
allowed to do so). That important it is! I noticed
they knew nothing about this critical subject, as if it was a
post-graduate topic. Unfortunately,
I was the only teacher
covering Paleontology, which not even was in the FCAT requirements.
~ Other colleagues did not realize the
importance of having our students informed about those important
scientific concepts. Sometimes parents would object, due to the
fact that you need to teach this in conjunction with 'Evolution'!
~ One of the reasons I would like to
be in Congress is to fix our poor 'science literacy' in the Public
School system (often due to conflict with religious folk). I
was reprimanded by Principals on several occasions, often opting for
leaving rather than changing my instruction.
~ Notice that the graph presented here encompasses
not 1,000,000 years, but 600,000,000 years (600 times longer). You
can see that the temperature never exceeded by much 24 degrees Celsius
(otherwise fauna, and much of the flora would have succumbed). Yet
the CO2 content of the air was as high as 7000 ppm during the Cambrian
(a period where plants grew to huge size). Plants die if CO2 is
less than 200 ppm, but the more CO2 the better.
~ This 'lower the CO2' message has been inserted in some
of my signs. Lowering the CO2 has been my main focus -and
motivation- during the 2002 political campaign, and has been my motor as well
during this 2016 campaign.
~ It is sad to see lawyers, and other individuals
-who do not have much vision on these critical environmental issues
(and often are totally science-illiterate) getting their candidacies supported by
many political organizations while my campaign is near collapse for lack
of contributions and support. :O(
~ I did all I could, given the
terrible obstacles! :O|
In 2016 we are now at almost 410 ppm (parts per
million of CO2)
Notice in graph that 400 ppm of CO2 is yet an
acceptable level, but 1000 ppm is toxic if submerged for good in that
Going back almost 1,000,000 years, we know how
high was the temperature and the CO2 concentration in the air. We are at
a peak for both factors.
Our human body tolerates about 450 ppm normally,
and if for a limited time (like a few hours in a class room) we can
support more than 2000 ppm.
But if permanently breathing foul air, we cannot
be at higher than 600 ppm. Toxic level is 1000, yet children and
seniors do not have that kind of tolerance, especially if they suffer
from asthma and other respiratory problems. In a matter of 100
years a lot of people will have to use masks.
At the rate we are going it is projected we will
be at 550 ppm by 2050, and 1000 ppm by 2100.
Significant flooding (due to sea-level rise)
will be with us in 2200, but 'foul air' will arrive much sooner (and yet
this fact escapes the attention of many scientists who only talk about
global warming and global flooding).
Since the late 1970's, I have been a watchdog about this problem,
and for the most part I have been ignored .
I feel the same way with the
'sediments' of Lake 'O'. I have been pressing for those sediments
to be seeing as the culprit (of those discharges of fresh water to
But, I am alone! As it has been the case for decades.
The press, colleagues, politicians and others do not understand my
insistence, trying -for decades- to bring the subject to the fore line.
The models used to estimate future CO2 content
of the air are based in 1800 (at the advent of the Industrial Era) and -as
you can see- the curve fitting is exponential, although the slope during
a period of just a few decades might look flat (linear).
As time progresses, if nothing is being done to
palliate the problem (normally referred as 'Business as Usual model')
then by 2100 we will be at the toxic level of 1000 ppm. What is
worse, in just 34 years we would be at 550 ppm, which would be very
uncomfortable for most of us. The time to use some kind of mask is
just around the corner.